
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Sanders Must Now Choose His Battlefield [View all]Aquaria
(1,076 posts)When only three low-population states had had their say--two of them blindingly white.
Since then, more, bigger and more diverse states have made their voices heard. Their voters have spoken, and chose someone else.
Unlike with Biden before South Carolina, with an abundance of delegate-rich states yet to weigh in, there is no maybe later for BS. There is no thread for him to hang onto. 60% of the delegates have been snatched up and BS is behind. By some 295 delegates as we speak. He would have to get 70% of the vote in the remaining primaries to win the nomination. I would love to hear how he pulls that off when he hasn't managed to get out of the 30s in any state, even California, where he would have lost by ten or more percentage points if Bloomberg hadn't been in the race. Are you aware of the fact that BS has won barely more counties since South Carolina than Biden won in Texas alone? Ever since the race came down to Biden vs BS, Biden has been winning. Handily.
Where is the path to the nomination for BS? He's not polling ahead of Biden in any remaining state. He is not even polling close to the margin of error. He's double digits down in multiple states.
This much I know, because I know demographics and, from long observation and experience, I know how certain states vote and why:
BS will not win any of the red state primaries, including Wisconsin. They will never vote for a Jewish Commie. I'm not saying their assessment is right or fair, only that most red staters see him that way. It's not a positive for them.
BS will not win the remaining Rust belt states of Pennsylvania and Ohio. Biden is their guy and always would have been. Our former VP speaks their language and rides the same wavelength they do. Always has. BS does not, and never will. And never forget: Biden is a Native Son in Pennsylvania. BS doesn't stand a chance against him there, and he is doomed if he doesn't win big in PA.
Speaking of, BS will not win in Delaware against their former Senator. He will not win heavily Catholic Rhode Island against Catholic Biden. If anything Biden will cream him in both. They're small states, yes, but BS can't afford to lose big in either of them.
If BS couldn't win MA or WA, he has little chance of winning CT, NJ or NY. They're the same type of electorates: Diverse white collar cities, lots of suburban soccer moms, and wide swaths of conservative rural districts. Even if he could eke out a victory from any or all of them, he still wouldn't collect enough delegates to save him. Biden will get a minimum 40% of their delegates, no matter what.
BS won't even win DC, because they know him and thus know better.
He is DONE. It's his own fault if he refuses to face that reality.
So shrug your shoulders all you want, but the cold hard facts speak far louder.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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