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The current state of the Biden-Sanders delegate math, explained [View all]
Biden’s delegate advantage is growing, and Sanders is rapidly running out of time.By Andrew Prokopandrew@vox.com Mar 11, 2020, 1:50pm EDT
A round of defeats for Bernie Sanders in Tuesday’s primary contests has put the Vermont senator in a deeper delegate hole — and his scenario for a comeback against Joe Biden is growing more implausible.
“Last night, obviously, was not a good night for our campaign from a delegate point of view,” Sanders said at a press conference in Burlington, Vermont, on Wednesday.
It’s true. Biden didn’t just win the most states — he won several landslides. Biden has expanded his lead over Sanders from 97 delegates to 162. Though delegate allocations are far from final, the Associated Press estimates the former vice president will get +29 in Mississippi, +20 in Michigan, and +17 in Missouri. Our partners at Decision Desk have a slightly more conservative overall estimate but predict a similar net advantage for Biden.
Sanders did score a victory by taking home the North Dakota caucuses, but the outcome was narrow enough and the state is small enough that he’ll just get a net delegate advantage of +2. Biden, though, won Idaho’s primary, and got his own net delegate advantage of +2 there — canceling out Sanders’s tiny gain.
“Last night, obviously, was not a good night for our campaign from a delegate point of view,” Sanders said at a press conference in Burlington, Vermont, on Wednesday.
It’s true. Biden didn’t just win the most states — he won several landslides. Biden has expanded his lead over Sanders from 97 delegates to 162. Though delegate allocations are far from final, the Associated Press estimates the former vice president will get +29 in Mississippi, +20 in Michigan, and +17 in Missouri. Our partners at Decision Desk have a slightly more conservative overall estimate but predict a similar net advantage for Biden.
Sanders did score a victory by taking home the North Dakota caucuses, but the outcome was narrow enough and the state is small enough that he’ll just get a net delegate advantage of +2. Biden, though, won Idaho’s primary, and got his own net delegate advantage of +2 there — canceling out Sanders’s tiny gain.
How to understand the Biden-Sanders delegate count
Though Biden won 10 out of 14 states on Super Tuesday, the delegate lead he emerged with wasn’t insurmountable. About 62 percent of pledged delegates remained to be allotted, so it would be possible for Sanders to make a comeback, if he started winning.
But Sanders would have to do it fast. Though voting in Democratic primaries continues through June, the calendar is frontloaded, with contests piled on both Super Tuesday and the two weeks afterward. After this Tuesday’s primary, just 53 percent of delegates remain. After next Tuesday, March 17, just 38.5 percent will be left.
But Sanders would have to do it fast. Though voting in Democratic primaries continues through June, the calendar is frontloaded, with contests piled on both Super Tuesday and the two weeks afterward. After this Tuesday’s primary, just 53 percent of delegates remain. After next Tuesday, March 17, just 38.5 percent will be left.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/11/21174257/biden-sanders-delegate-count-primaries
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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