Atlanta Fed predicts negative 1.5 percent GDP growth in first quarter

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Hat tip, Joe.My.God.

Golden Age: Atlanta Fed Forecasts GDP Contraction
February 28, 2025

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BUSINESS
Atlanta Fed predicts negative 1.5 percent GDP growth in first quarter

BY TOBIAS BURNS - 02/28/25 12:53 PM ET

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is projecting a contraction of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.5 percent in the first quarter, flashing a warning sign for the U.S. economy.

The projection is a significant shift for the Atlanta Fed over the last few weeks that comes a little more than a month after President Trump took office. … The Atlanta Fed last week was predicting 2.3 percent positive growth for the first quarter. A month ago, it was registering 3.9 percent growth.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow measure is not an official forecast but rather a running estimate of real GDP growth based on data as it comes in. … The first quarter ends at the end of March, and GDP will be officially calculated by the Commerce Department.

But the forward-looking indicator’s major drop will still be of significant concern to policymakers, economists and markets alike, especially as fourth-quarter GDP registered a strong second estimate this week.

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