Trump says US has reached trade deal with Vietnam

[WSHazel]

4. Maybe

Vietnamese exports to U.S. are 30% holding all things equal. But if the net revenue to the exporter declines if it exports to the U.S., it will at least explore other markets. We live in a global economy after all. Let's say an exporter of $100 widgets is sending 30% of its production to America. Now America places a 20% tariff on the widgets. If the exporter eats all of that tariff, then its net revenue is $80/widget. What if it can sell more widgets to Japan at $90/widget? Why would it sell any to America?

Let's say the exporter is willing to sell at $90 net revenue/widget to America. That would mean the price to the American purchaser is $112.50. So now the cost to the American purchaser has gone up $12.50/widget from where it was before the tariff.

As more transactions occur away from America, the use of the dollar as a reserve currency declines, and the dollar drops. So now, $1.00 may be worth what $0.90 was 6 months ago. (The Euro's appreciation has been significantly bigger than that). Now, for all things to be equal, the exporter needs to get $100/widget net revenue, which means the price to the American purchaser is $125/widget.

The result will be Americans paying more for less, and the bottom 99%'s taxes going up significantly through tariffs.