Let's talk about the US recovering from Trump.... Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about the US recovering from Trump.

We've talked a few times about the United States in a post-Trump world and whether the decline of US global power that Trump has triggered is irreversible. I've noted that it depends on a number of factors.

That's led to questions and comments that want an explanation like “Belle, love you, but you're wrong. The world will never look at the US again, you aren't an ally to us anymore, and I don't see a way back.”

“Belle sometimes I wonder if you don't believe in your own brand of American exceptionalism. The US has torched trading partners and disregarded its allies. What makes you think European countries or Canada will ever view you as an ally again?”

History. History mostly. The speed at which nations forget the past is remarkable when interests align. Regardless of the current state of play, which is undeniably damaging the United States, the US is a massive market with a massive economic footprint. It has a large military footprint and its cultural exports are dominating. You can argue whether or not these things are good or deserved, but the fact is that they exist.

Trump is rapidly degrading US power in just about every way imaginable. But his behavior and the behavior of the Republicans who allowed it are incredibly unlikely to lead to the US being treated as a pariah nation for long.

To show you how quickly nations forget about the past when interests align, I'm going to go to the most extreme example in modern history. Italy allied with Germany during World War II. World War II ended in Europe on May 8th, 1945. Do you know what happened on April 4th, 1949? Italy became a founding member of NATO. Less than four years, not even a full US presidential term.

What about Germany itself? How long until West Germany became a full-blown ally of the West? About 10 years.

To show this isn't just something related to Europe. On the other side of the world, the US dropped nuclear weapons on Japan in August of 1945. By April 28, 1952, the US occupation was over, at least on paper and in theory, Japan was a US ally of sorts. It took another decade or so for it to really take hold. Today, Japan is one of our most important allies in the region.

This trend isn't new or isolated. Think about the current relationship between Bosnia and Serbia versus 30 years ago, or the fact that we're Vietnam's second largest trading partner.

Reversing US decline won't be as simple as electing someone other than Trump. That person would have to rebuild US institutions. We'll probably need to institute more checks on executive power and so on. It'll take years before the world trusts us again. We're probably looking at 10 years before the damage Trump did is washed away. It's either that or we join the ranks of nations that were superpowers that are now simply major powers. The decline of the US is currently in full swing, but it isn't irreversible. At least not yet.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Yeah, well post-WWII the US provided rebuild capital to those nations because

we were the only source of capital. Marshall Plan. Seems to me I read even the USSR was in line for cash to obtain rebuilding materials.

Post-Trump we'll be broke. So there goes that idea.