Let's talk about SCOTUS, Trump, Voting Rights, and the dust settling.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about SCOTUS, Trump, Voting Rights, and the dust settling.

Okay. The Supreme Court went after the Voting Rights Act in a way that makes it legal to undermine the voting power of black Americans via gerrymandering. As a side effect, it will also lessen voting power of other minority groups, but it will also lessen the voting power of another surprising demographic. And we'll get to that in a minute.

When the ruling came down, there were a lot of hot takes about how it was going to destroy the Democratic party and that it was going to really help MAGA in 2028 with some saying it would offer a drastic shift in 2026.

Louisiana maps were directly hit by the Supreme Court decision, so there's a strong potential for a redistricting there that gets into play before the midterms. Alabama, South Carolina, and Tennessee have also indicated their desire to redraw maps to dilute the vote of some of their citizens. South Carolina probably stands the best shot of getting it done before the midterms out of those three.

Georgia's Republican Governor Brian Kemp, who now has an established history of trying to put his state above his party, has ruled out a redraw for the midterms. There's also a large number of court cases running on various redistricting efforts.

But now, let's get on to the surprising demographic that is set to lose out. Republicans.

See, there's this weird thing. In states that want racial gerrymandering, they already did it as much as they could by law. In states that tried to provide more representative access to voters, well, they have more room to operate.
The civil rights group Fair Fight Action put out a series of reports about maps that could be redrawn in favor of each party if section two of the Voting Rights Act was gutted in the way that it was. It identified 19 seats Republicans could go after. 22 were identified for Democrats to target. Since all bets are off, it seems likely that each party will go full throttle. All of this mess may turn out to be roughly a wash again, just like the last round. But there's one other thing at play that may disrupt this even further. Generally speaking, the data available to make the maps that will be used in the future is pointless.

Trump's record high disapproval is going to skew the midterms. And when it comes to 2028 because Trump has scrambled traditional voting patterns for more than a decade, the data Republicans will use to draw new maps is derived from a MAGA base that is crumbling.

One of the things about wannabe strongman leaders is that the base rarely transfers to the next person in line. Rubio can't hold that base together. It would be an oddity if Vance could.

It depends on how court cases play out, but right now it looks like Democrats could get a tiny edge, but it'll probably end up being a wash. But then when 2028 rolls around, Republicans will be campaigning in districts drawn to support a coalition that in all likelihood will no longer exist.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.