Overconfident conspiracy theorists: Many unaware their beliefs are on the fringe

[erronis]

https://phys.org/news/2025-06-overconfident-conspiracy-theorists-unaware-beliefs.html
Kate Blackwood, Cornell University

Overconfidence is a hallmark trait of people who believe in conspiracies, and they also significantly overestimate how much others agree with them, Cornell psychology researchers have found. The study indicates that belief in conspiracies may be less about a person's needs and motivations and more about their failure to recognize that they might be wrong.

Conspiracy believers not only consistently overestimated their performance on numeracy and perception tests, revealing they tend to be less analytic in the way they think. They also are genuinely unaware that their beliefs are on the fringe, thinking themselves to be in the majority 93% of the time, according to the research. The work counters previous theories that people believe conspiracies essentially because they want to, out of narcissism or to appear unique.

"This group of people are really miscalibrated from reality," said Gordon Pennycook, associate professor of psychology and the Himan Brown Faculty Fellow in the College of Arts and Sciences. "In many cases, they believe something that very few people agree with. Not only is it something that doesn't make a lot of sense, based on what we know about the world, but they also have no idea how far out in the fringe they are. They think they are in the majority in most cases, even if they're in a tiny minority.

Pennycook is the corresponding author of "Overconfidently Conspiratorial: Conspiracy Believers are Dispositionally Overconfident and Massively Overestimate How Much Others Agree with Them," which is published in Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. Jabin Binnendyk, a doctoral student in psychology, and David G. Rand of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology are co-authors.

. . .

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. This link should be posted in every 2024 election denial thread. Nt

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. I have subscribed to the "appear unique" theory in the past, but "miscalibrated from reality" is so true. . . . nt

[erronis]

3. This also gives me a pause for thought. If we might be "miscalibrated" then perhaps there is no simple fix

other than a total recalibration. Wonder if the new hallucinogenic (psilobybin) therapies might be of benefit. But I can just imagine trying to get one of these folks to give it a try!

[bucolic_frolic]

4. I'm not surprised but it's chasing ghosts to just ID the condition

How did they come to have such robust belief in their own judgment?

Personally, I think psychology has a lot to answer for. It's been about 100 years since it landed in the US, and it's gone through different theories of popularity about every 25 years. Psychoanalysis, Behaviorism, Cognitive Behavioral Psychology, Holistic & Integrative ......... There were a lot of sub-schools along the way, and blends, and niche schools and fringe ones. The period of feel good mood therapy coincided with the end of the Cold War and the rise of the Me generation. I would theorize this emphasis on the self has given rise to a totally narcissistic culture that believes in itself and is foundational for conspiracy enthusiasts.

With so many schools of thought, do any of them know what's going on? Why do schools fall in and out of favor? They're as bad as economists, a new theory for their paymasters please pass the consulting fees, lobbyists, and think tanks.

[erronis]

5. "They're as bad as economists" - otherwise known as another dismal "science"

which is really a bunch of voodoo or religious nonsense. (I don't mean to impugn voodoo!)