The US job market added fewer jobs than expected in February as unemployment unexpectedly rose

[bucolic_frolic]

https://www.businessinsider.com/february-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-employment-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2025-3

The job market was just a touch cooler in February, as new job creation clocked in at 151,000, below expectations, and unemployment unexpectedly increased to 4.1%.

The job growth forecast was 159,000, and unemployment was expected to be at the same rate as January's 4%. Unemployment has been between 4% and 4.2% since May.

~~~~~

Economic data like unemployment is useful for the Federal Reserve to determine what to do next with interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee is meeting later this month, following their most recent decision to hold rates steady in January. Since then, two jobs reports and other data releases, such as reports about consumer confidence and prices, have given further insight into the economy's performance.

"Labor market conditions have cooled from their formerly overheated state and remain solid," Fed chair Jerome Powell said in the semiannual testimony before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs in February.

[underpants]

1. Gee 🤔 how'd that happen?

[NotHardly]

19. Talk about a stupidly blind headline... sheesh

[SheltieLover]

2. Unexpectedly rose?

[ms liberty]

3. Exactly what I was about to say!

[wolfie001]

5. The greedy sick billionaires want to normalize the lunatic in the WH so badly.......

.......in order to get everything they want. Don't expect any accurate analysis coming from DC any time soon. An informed populace would have never allowed such a stupid narcissist anywhere near the WH.

[SheltieLover]

6. Oh I don't trust anything they say

[Harker]

11. +33. Phony "expectations" intended to pre-manage our reactions. n/t

[SheltieLover]

13. Yeah, but that doesn't work here.

Not easily programmed.

[Harker]

16. Right! We're not at home to weasels and their words.

[SheltieLover]

17. Definitely not!

[Lovie777]

4. Well all that firing...................

it's logical that would happen and it will continue to rise.

Feb 2024 under President Biden was about 275,000 jobs.

If he were still president the headline today would be brutal.

[markodochartaigh]

12. "If he were still president the headline today would be brutal."

NYT, "Millions of Americans forced into the job market in the struggle to afford eggs."

[Klarkashton]

7. "Day one"

[Wiz Imp]

8. These are the kind of meh numbers that are not immediately obviously either honest or dishonest.

For now I'm inclined to think they are probably legit. Federal Government employment did drop by 10,000, but most of the Federal job cuts happened too late to show up in the February data. March data will definitely show a much bigger drop in Federal Government jobs.

Just to be clear, BLS has been producing these data for about 90 years, and there has never been any manipulation of the numbers. The BLS employees involved with these programs have been of the utmost integrity and only the economists and statisticians within the BLS have access to the data prior to the 8:30 AM release on the First Friday of every month. No outside parties have been allowed to see the data prior to its official publication and that includes the President. It is extremely unfortunate that we are now in a position where we can no longer trust that nearly a century of honest data reporting norms will continue to be followed. Having worked on these programs for close to 35 years myself, it will be a very sad and dark day if/when this administration chooses to throw away that century of principles, ethics and morals. Once it is broached, there is no going back.

[markodochartaigh]

14. There are different unemployment metrics though,

which are sometimes spun to obfuscate the truth.

https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm

[North Coast Lawyer]

9. So Unexpected

Who would have thought that firing thousands of people, tearing up international trade agreements, and generally ripping up the rule of law economies require for stability would have negative effects?

[Bengus81]

10. Yes...but we're looking for 25% tariffs to really turn things around next month!!

[markodochartaigh]

15. Tens of thousands of laid-off government workers

from across the country will suddenly show up at their local avocado groves eager to start their new jobs picking avocados.

[AmericaUnderSiege]

18. Whose expectations are these?

I applaud the American people's resilience in the face of utter chaos.

[progree]

20. The survey week for both surveys is usually the week containing the 12th. So this report's survey was done Feb 10-14

if the usual applies. So that was 3 to 3 1/2 weeks after Krasnov took office. I don't know how many federal workers had been fired by then.

The two surveys that go into these (usually) first Friday jobs reports are:

      # The Establishment Survey which produces the headline payroll jobs numbers (151,000 increase in this report)

      # The Household Survey which produces the headline unemployment rate (4.1% in this report), and several others such as labor force participation rate. The Household Survey is a monthly survey of 60,000 households. Note that this does NOT come from state unemployment insurance claims filings.

As for "unexpected" increase in unemployment rate (expected: 4.0%, same as in the prior month's report) - the article ( https://archive.is/PdAW7 ) doesn't say anything or any hint about it or what group of economists produced the forecast. But the MarketWatch Calendar's ( https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar ) economists also forecast a 4.0% rate (and as just reported, it came out to be 4.1%)

"The median forecasts in this calendar come from surveys of economists conducted by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal."

Just a couple bits of info.

[NotHardly]

21. Gosh, I wondered what happened?