S&P 500 closed Wednesday 7/2 at 6227, up 0.5% for the day, and up 5.9% year-to-date (since Dec 31)

[progree]

This discussion thread is pinned.

Last edited Wed Jul 2, 2025, 06:34 PM - Edit history (111)

The benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved firmly higher Wednesday after President Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, lifting investor hopes that more agreements will come before the July 9 tariff pause deadline.

"Meanwhile, the labor market showed more signs of a cooldown in June. ADP data showed US private employers unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in the month, badly missing expectations of around 98,000 jobs added. It was the first month of job losses in the private sector in over two years.

Perversely, this probably helped stocks because it raised the odds that the Fed will cut their interest rate in July, and that there might be as many as 2 cuts including one in September.

The ADP direct data covers just 20% of the payrolled work force, and the rest is extrapolation. It is widely ignored and forgotten when the much more comprehensive Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report comes out 2 days later (normally 2 days later, but this month it's one day later). Don't believe stories that say about the ADP report, "it showed private sector jobs dropped by 33,000". It is not a comprehensive enough survey to "show" anything.

Tomorrow the big Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) "First Friday" jobs report comes out, yes, tomorrow, THURSDAY, because Friday is July 4.

"Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 110,000 in June and the unemployment rate to have moved up to 4.3% (from 4.2% in May -Progree), according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

More on the market action today: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-sp-500-nasdaq-leap-to-fresh-records-as-vietnam-trade-deal-boosts-hopes-ahead-of-key-jobs-report-230021146.html

Markets will close early, 1 PM EDT tomorrow, Thursday, July 3, and won't open again until Monday July 7

=============================================
The S&P 500 closed Wednesday July 2 at 6227, up 0.5% for the day,
and up 7.7% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 3.8% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 5.9% year-to-date,

S&P 500
# Election day close (11/5/24) 5783
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 5997
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 5882
# All-time closing high (2/19/25): 6144, until 6/27/25 when it closed at 6173
. . . With the new all-time high closing on June 27, we are in a bull market by any and all definitions
# Trump II era low point (going all the way back to election day Nov5): 4983 on April 8

# Several market indexes: https://finance.yahoo.com/
# S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

========================================================

I'm not a fan of the DOW as it is a cherry-picked collection of just 30 stocks that are price-weighted, which is silly. But since there is an automatically updating embedded graphic, here it is. It takes several, like 6 hours, after the close for it to update, like about 10 PM EDT.
(If it still isn't updated, try right-clicking on it and opening in a new tab. #OR# click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/ ).
It closed Tuesday at 44,495, and it closed Wednesday at 44,484, a drop of 0.0% (11 points) for the day

I don't maintain statistics for the DOW like percent up or down since election day, or year-to-date, or from the all-time high etc. like I do for the S&P 500.

DJIA means Dow Jones Industrials Average. It takes about 6 hours after the close to update, so check it after 10 PM EDT


https://finance.yahoo.com/
DOW: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/
. . . . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/

DOW
# Election day close (11/5/24) 42,222
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 43,488
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 42,544
# DOW All Time High: 12/4/24: 45,014

# Correction level beginning 10% down: 40,513,
# Bear market level: beginning 20% down: 36,011 (we've not reached that level yet in Trump II so far)

I don't have an embeddable graph for the S&P 500, unfortunately, but to see its graph, click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

While I'm at it, I might as well show Oil and the Dollar:

Crude Oil


US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)


If you see a tiny graphics square above and no graph, right click on the square and choose "load image". There should be a total of 3 graphs. And remember that it typically takes about 6 hours after the close before these graphs update.

[progree]

1. Kicking for the milestone update - S&P 500's first close below the election day close. How major indexes fared:

Last edited Tue Mar 4, 2025, 05:51 PM - Edit history (1)

How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, AP, 3/4/2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-211928579.html

Here's the Year-to-date ones from the article:
# S&P 500: down 1.8%
# Dow: down 0.1%
# Nasdaq down: 5.3%
# Russell 2000 (the small caps): down 6.8%

Not in the article is that the S&P 500 is down 5.9% from its all time closing high of 6144 on Feb 19.

[progree]

2. Kicking: update for Thurs. March 6 close. The "Trump Trade" is back underwater after losing 1.8% for the day (S&P 500)

See OP for the statistics.

[progree]

3. Kicking: Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5770, up 0.5% for the day but still below the election day close

See OP for details

[progree]

4. Update: S&P 500 closed Monday 3/10 at 5615, down 2.7% for the day and 2.9% below the election day close

see OP for details.

[progree]

5. Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/11 at 5572, down 0.8% for the day, briefly fell into correction territory

Details in OP.

[progree]

6. S&P 500 closed Wednesday 3/12 at 5599, up 0.5% for the day, but down 3.2% since election day

See OP for details, and a graph of the DOW.

[progree]

7. Update: S&P 500 closed Thursday at 5522, down 1.4% for the day, and MORE THAN 10% down from the all-time high

Details in the OP.

[progree]

8. Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5639, up 2.1% for the day, and down 2.5% since election day

Details in the OP.

[progree]

9. Update: S&P 500 closed Monday at 5675, up 0.6% for the day, and down 1.9% since election day

Details in OP.

[progree]

10. Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 5615, down 1.1% for the day, and down 2.9% since election day

Details in OP.

[progree]

11. S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/25 at 5777, up 0.2% for the day, down 0.1% since election day, down 6.0% from ATH

Details in OP. ATH is All Time High. I don't kick this every market day, but it's been several days, and it's gotten well down on the listings, so I decided to kick it. It looks like the Trump slump since election day is about at an end, only 0.1% down since election day, and with 3 straight market days of gains. Since inauguration day, its down 3.7%.

[progree]

12. S&P 500 closed Wednesday 4/02 at 5671, up 0.7% for the day, down 1.9% since election day, down 7.7% from ATH

ATH is All Time High. Details in OP including more comparisons like down 5.4% since pre-inauguration day, and down 3.6% year-to-date.

I don't kick this every market day, but it's been several days, and it's gotten well down on the listings, so I decided to kick it. Note this closing is moments before the announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs, so it's a good benchmark to compare to what follows in the next few days.