The more Democrats win closely watched races, the more Republicans should be concerned about the 2026 midterms.
The broader pattern is brutal:
Republicans are tied to an unpopular president; a growing number of GOP members are retiring; key elements of the the party's agenda are facing an intensifying public backlash; *and* they keep losing special elections, including in contests they expected to win.
— Steve Benen (@stevebenen.com) 2026-03-11T20:36:27.786Z
https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/dems-score-upset-win-in-new-hampshire-special-election-giving-gop-fresh-reason-to-worry
Heading into Tuesday’s state legislative special election in New Hampshire, Republicans had reason to be cautiously optimistic. T
he race was in a district that Donald Trump won by 9 points in 2024, and the Democratic candidate had already run and lost twice before by wide margins.
And yet, the contest turned into the latest in a series of red-to-blue flips. NH Journal reported:
In what Granite State Republicans hope is not a preview of November, Democrat Bobbi Boudman won Tuesday’s special election for Carroll County District 7, defeating Republican Dale Fincher 51 percent to 47 percent in a district that voted Republican by more than 13 points just 16 months ago.
The New Hampshire Union Leader called the outcome “stunning” and a “big upset” given the Republican advantage in the local district......
What’s more, The Downballot noted that
the results out of New Hampshire marked the 10th time Democrats have flipped a district from red to blue in a special election since Trump returned to the White House. Over that same period, the number of seats flipped from blue to red remains zero.
Some will no doubt argue that it’s best not to read too much into a special election held in the winter, several months before November’s races. It’s a fair point, to be sure. But what matters is the degree to which the results fit into the broader political landscape.
Republicans are tied to an unpopular president; a growing number of their congressional members are retiring; key elements of the GOP agenda are facing an intensifying public backlash; and they keep losing special elections, including in contests they expected to win.
If party insiders aren’t concerned about their standing ahead of this year’s midterm elections, they’re not paying close enough attention.
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