FL-SD14: Dems hope for long-shot upset in SD 14 Special Election between Josie Tomkow, Brian Nathan
Early voting, voter registration and fundraising data suggests Nathan will come up short, but there could be a silver lining for Democrats.
The Special Election for Senate District 14 Tuesday is only open to Hillsborough County residents within district boundaries, but its results will be watched statewide as both major political parties search for signs ahead of the 2026 Midterms.
For Democrats, the SD 14 contest is a long-shot chance to claw back a seat in the upper chamber. While the ultimate goal for Democrats is a Brian Nathan victory over Republican state Rep. Josie Tomkow, even a defeat could feel like a win in this red district.
For Republicans, the race is an opportunity to see just how much Midterm Election year trends will be in play in Florida. Political prognosticators nationwide anticipate Democratic overperformances this year amid ongoing affordability challenges, current frustration over the war in Iran, and historically low approval ratings for the nation’s top Republican, President Donald Trump.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/786531-dems-hope-for-long-shot-upset-in-sd-14-special-election-between-josie-tomkow-brian-nathan/