Punishingly hot, dry summer forecast (models point to triple digits, high fire danger)
San Francisco Chronicle / 6-9-25
According to the seasonal outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, most inland areas in California have a 50% to 60% chance of experiencing above-average summer temperatures. This forecast extends a clear warming trend. California’s average summer temperature has come in above the 1991–2020 climatological normal every year since 2012. The run peaked in 2024, the hottest summer for California in over 100 years, when Sacramento, Stockton, Redding and San Jose shattered their seasonal heat records. This summer, even traditionally mild coastal cities face a coin-flip-level chance for above-normal warmth, hinting that the marine layer may not offer its usual insulation.
UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain sees two forces at work. First, he said, is the rising baseline: “Climate change means most recent summers already start warmer than the 30- to 40-year average.” Second is an ocean pattern that forecast models clearly detect even if meteorologists are not exactly sure what it is. As Swain puts it: “There is something in the initial state of the Earth system — mostly the sea-surface-temperature pattern that is forcing this persistent very hot signal. We know it isn’t El Niño, so it has to be something else, and we may not even have a clear name for it yet.”
SNIP
Even more concerning are increasingly warm summer nights, disrupting the critical overnight cooling that communities depend on for recovery from daytime heat. The Climate Prediction Center’s latest outlook suggests 2025 will again deliver an above-average run of 100-degree afternoons and unusually warm overnight lows across much of the state.
The hotter, drier backdrop will impact the fire season as well. Cal Fire and the National Interagency Fire Center reported that a lush grass crop is drying weeks ahead of schedule in Southern California. Sparse winter rains in that region left soils thirsty and vegetation quick to brown. The summer outlook shows July with above-normal large fire potential over nearly all of Northern California and much of the Sierra and Coast Ranges. That risk expands to nearly the entire state by August, as persistent heat and drought-stressed fuels could push fire activity above normal this summer.
Link (Paywall): https://eedition.sfchronicle.com/infinity/article_popover_share.aspx?guid=3fd533ff-88a7-4dd1-a236-90be1e53b905&share=true
Trying to prepare here by clearing/pruning vegetation. How about everybody else?