Fed's preferred inflation gauge shows price increases accelerated in June amid tariff uncertainty
Source: Yahoo! Fnance
Updated Thu, July 31, 2025 at 8:44 AM EDT
The latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed price increases accelerated in June as inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target.
The "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out food and energy costs and is closely watched by the central bank, rose 0.3% from the prior month, in line with the 0.3% economists had expected and above the 0.2% increase seen in May.
On an annual basis, core prices rose 2.8%, above the 2.7% economists had expected and in line with May's reading. May's 2.8% reading was revised higher from an initially reported 2.7% increase.
The release comes just one day after the Fed opted to hold interest rates steady at its July meeting, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressing that it's still the "early days" of any tariff impact on inflation and that there is still "a long way to go" before the full effects will be clear.
Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-shows-prices-increased-more-than-expected-in-june-123314802.html
From the source - https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2025
Article updated.
Previous article/headlines -
Updated Thu, July 31, 2025 at 8:44 AM EDT
The latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed price increases accelerated in June as inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target.
The "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out food and energy costs and is closely watched by the central bank, rose 0.3% from the prior month, in line with the 0.3% economists had expected and above the 0.2% increase seen in May.
On an annual basis, core prices rose 2.8%, above the 2.7% economists had expected and in line with May's reading. May's 2.8% reading was revised higher from an initially reported 2.7% increase.
The release comes just one day after the Fed opted to hold interest rates steady at its July meeting with Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressing its still the "early days" of any tariff impact on inflation and there is still "a long way to go" before the full effects will be clear.
Original article/headline.
Thu, July 31, 2025 at 8:33 AM EDT
The latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed price increases accelerated in June more than expected as inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target.
The "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out food and energy costs and is closely watched by the central bank, rose 2.8% on an annual basis, above the 2.7% economists had expected and higher than the 2.7% seen in May.
Core prices rose 0.3% from the prior month, in line with the 0.3% economists had expected and above the 0.2% increase seen in May.
The release comes just one day after the Fed opted to hold interest rates steady at its July meeting with Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressing its still the "early days" of any tariff impact on inflation and there is still "a long way to go" before the full effects will be clear.
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Last edited Thu Jul 31, 2025, 11:27 AM - Edit history (1)
Just for a quick look at the graphs. I'm still working on the blah blah part
I'm not a big fan of the PCE, because it is a chained price index. It all boils down to is that it includes the effects of consumers switching to lower grade items, so, for example if in the face of high beef prices, consumers switch to chicken and beans, that lowers the reported meat and food PCE inflation numbers. (The reverse also happens too)
For that reason, I prefer the CPI, which has less of that.
But the PCE, especially the Core PCE, is what the Fed favors, so anyone trying to predict what the Fed might do needs to focus on the Core PCE, and not the CPI measures
The Fed favors the CORE measures for forecasting FUTURE inflation, as shown by analysis of the data.
I annualize them all to be easy to compare to each other, and to compare to the FED's 2% goal. I use the actual index values rather than the one-digit changes that are commonly reported in the media. Links to the data are with the graphs.
ALL the numbers are the seasonally adjusted ones
REGULAR ALL ITEMS PCE
BEA.gov News release: https://www.bea.gov/ and click on "Personal Income and Outlays" or "Personal Income"
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
CORE PCE:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE
REGULAR ALL ITEMS CPI (released 7/15/25)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CORE CPI (released 7/15/25):
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
LBN thread on CPI inflation, 7/15/25:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143496078
BACK TO THE PCE released 7/31/25 - Year-over-Year
from: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2025
and I was waiting for CNBC to start blaring headlines and nada. 
At least Yahoo! Finance came to the rescue! 
Guard your loins and purses people!
TACO Don's price increases will begin!! 
