The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, badly missing expectations for a 100,000 increase, ADP says

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNBC

Published Wed, Jul 2 2025 8:15 AM EDT | Updated 16 Min Ago


Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month.

Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000.

“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said in a press release published Wednesday morning.

To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May’s soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/adp-jobs-report-june-2025.html

---

This is the 3rd party "ADP" report that covers "private sector" jobs vs the federal government's "all" that comes out Thursday Friday (Friday is the July 4 holiday). What is of note is that this is the first time I've seen CNBC remark on the wide differences in numbers between ADP's and BLS's data (I do that almost every time I report these).


Article updated.

Previous article -

Published Wed, Jul 2 2025 8:15 AM EDT | Updated 7 Min Ago


Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy that investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month.

Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000.

"Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month," Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist, said in a press release published Wednesday morning.

To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May's soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week.

Original article -

Published Wed, Jul 2 2025 8:15 AM EDT


Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy that investors believed as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month.

Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in the June, the ADP report showed. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000.

"Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month," Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist, said in a press release published Wednesday morning.

To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May's soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week.

[mdbl]

1. I don't see how they can trust any numbers from the federal govt either

what a mess.

[wolfie001]

10. Yes! tRUMP and his christo-fascist regime will start cooking these numbers if the SM starts going south

Which is where it's headed anyway

[newdeal2]

2. The markets are still being propped up

The devastation will take time but we all know where this is heading.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. Currently they are being propped up by retail investors, the public, not by deep dark nefarious forces

Not by hidden deca- and hecta-billionaires. Not by big banks.

Retail investors. Moms and pops.

[IronLionZion]

16. That's who will lose when it all comes crashing down

the wealthy are well insulated and prepared to benefit. They'll enjoy big tax cuts. Everyone else will suffer from a big beautiful bill of austerity.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

18. Sure, but the poster's conspiracy theory about big dark forces propping it up seems almost reflex. . . nt

[edhopper]

28. The market is moved by Hedge Funds

and big institutional investors. Not mom and pops with their 401Ks.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

31. Okay, more like sons & daughters (20s, 30s, 40s) on Robinhood.

The role of retail investors in buying the dip in April and the subsequent rise is documented in the market press.

The market is moved by hedge funds except when it isn't. Foreign investors play a role, too. Not to forget the ETFs, which are themselves moved by pension funds and by retail investors.

[edhopper]

32. And all won't see it coming

[tanyev]

3. Cain't be true. All them illegals they already rounded up?

That right there’s lots of jobs for hard-workin’ ‘Murrkans looking for a job.



Do I really need this?

[progree]

4. The gap between the ADP and BLS reports is usually many times larger than the gap between private sector and "all" jobs

Last edited Wed Jul 2, 2025, 10:47 AM - Edit history (2)

The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data series --

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier

According to the above links, In May, the "all" non-farm payroll employment was 159,561,000, while the private sector non-farm payroll employment was 135,968,000; so the private sector is about 85.2% the size of the "all".

Anyway, the 2nd link above (private) is what should be compared tomorrow to today's ADP report.

ETA-While I'm at it, I noticed that, according to the BLS in May (using the "monthly changes" links above), the private sector jobs grew by 140k while the "all" jobs grew by 139k.

For 2024, the "all" increased by an average of 167k / month, while the private sector increased by 130k / month. This is the kind of gap one would expect to see between "all" and private in a normal year.
/End ETA


=================================================

Also, the ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20191008a.htm

the ADP National Employment Report and ADP Small Business Report are derived from ADP payroll data representing 460,000 U.S. clients and nearly 26 million workers
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-2021-adp-national-employment-121500533.html
the above link is no longer good, but archive.org has it:
https://web.archive.org/web/20211207005815/https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-2021-adp-national-employment-121500533.html

How they extrapolate from 20% to the remaining 80%, I have no idea.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

5. US private employers cut 33,000 jobs in June, the latest sign of a slowing labor market

Yahoo Finance
US private employers cut 33,000 jobs in June, the latest sign of a slowing labor market

Josh Schafer • Reporter
Updated Wed, July 2, 2025 at 8:27 AM EDT • 2 min read

Private employers unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June, the latest signal of an intensifying slowdown in the US labor market.

On Wednesday, data from ADP showed private payrolls fell by 33,000 last month in June, below the 29,000 job gains seen in May and the 98,000 additions expected by economists.

This marked the first month of job losses in the private sector since March 2023. May's initial reading of 37,000 private payroll additions had been the lowest monthly total since March 2023.

"Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in the release. "Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth."

{snip}

[IronLionZion]

8. Almost like tariffs, mass deportations, harassing tourists, are all bad for business

err...umm....they're stealing our jobs.

[Mr. Mustard 2023]

13. Throttling the clean energy sector, insulting heads of states,

loss of benefits for the newly laid off, and sudden stoppage of retail spending by the working class. Borrowing money will become hard and more expensive as interests rates will rise, further slowing industry and it's all going to come to a head soon enough. This is obviously intentional and a coup.

[BoRaGard]

9. G.O.P. is driving our economy into the crapper

while making sure gop billionaires get royal benefits.

[Brainfodder]

11. All the firings had to hit sometime and all the obvious AF businesses that will now fail because of lack of cu$tomer$?

[moniss]

12. The Manufacturer's Index declined for the

3rd straight month in May. The index is considered a very reliable barometer of industrial activity.

[NoMoreRepugs]

14. In the middle of all this chaos it's common sense to think things will slow down. Growth and prosperity like calm water.

[Gimpyknee]

15. Trump -I did that!

[Farmer-Rick]

17. It use to take years before the bad economic decision

By the fools in DC would affect the larger economy. Like when in 1994 NAFTA and the other stupid free trade agreements were approved, when deregulation went wild in 1993 and when Glass - Steagell was repealed in 1999, it took untill 2008 before the real cracks showed. Each of those decisions made the economy worse and worse and then it cracked open.

Now with our jobs all moved to cheap labor countries, immigrant labor forced out, tariffs, inflation, wealth concentration and no regulations on capital, it takes a lot less time for the economy to crack. That's why W saw a collapse at the end of his term. It only took 7 years for the economy to break that time.

I bet the economy breaks this time in 3 years. As the economy gets weaker, it takes just a small push to destroy it versus the huge pushes in the 1990s..A bad economy is quicker and easier to destroy.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

20. 2008 not caused by 1994. But I think this economy will break in less than 3 yrs bc tRump's actions are drastic. . . nt

[edhopper]

29. I agree

as we are already seeing a slow down due to Trump policies. The Repukes usually cause a recession from ignoring regulations for the Financual Sector. This one is actively causing a crash.

[bronxiteforever]

21. +1 Very well thought out reply. Good points.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

19. Stable genius at work

Heckuva job Trumpy.

[twodogsbarking]

22. Those people on the Titanic just wanted to go for a swim. There was no iceberg and the ship will be docking in

TWO WEEKS

[Javaman]

23. don't you worry dear leader will conveniently blame Biden. even though it makes no sense. nt

[llmart]

24. So much winning!!!

Are we tired of the winning yet???

[BoRaGard]

25. If you were a republicon billionaire, this wouldn't bother you

You'd just go golfing.

[Demovictory9]

26. Yikes

[lostincalifornia]

27. The problem is that ADP uses a different methodology than ADP.

As I understand it ADP only covers non-farm private sector employment, while the bureau of labor statistics incvludes both private and governmental workers

.

[KentuckyWoman]

30. I just got hammered the other day

for mentioning the job market is a mess. WSJ reported the unemployment rate going up. Articles all over the place saying people out looking are waiting a lot longer to land something and having to settle for less. More articles all over the place saying people have given up and figured out how to manage without a regular full time job.

I was attacked because the official government data is the unemployment rate is holding steady. Which is true the official rate is holding steady. But in no way is that reliable as a measure of the job market.

[DallasNE]

33. It's All Going To Hell In A Hand Basket

And the reporting is skimpy. The drain plug has been pulled. June jobs reported from BLS is more reliable and it includes revisions for the prior 2 months. Last month the revisions downwards were substantial. Will the trend continue or will the trend be reversed?