Why There Will Be Almost No Movie Theaters in 5 Years

[babylonsister]

If true, how about transforming them into housing for the homeless? Or, bulldoze them and build condos.


Why There Will Be Almost No Movie Theaters in 5 Years
by Miles Mogulescu | December 24, 2025 - 6:02am


Whether Netflix or Paramount wins the battle of mega-corporations to merge with the fabled Warner Bros. movie studio, the economics of the film industry no longer support the production of enough feature films for most movie theaters to still be viable businesses. Within a few years, the theatrical feature film will be all but dead with devastating cultural, social, political, and economic impact.

snip//

A large portion of the public rightly figures that there’s no point in rushing out to theater to see a new feature for $15 or more a ticket plus parking and popcorn when they can see it at home at in a few weeks. Most theatrical films no longer pencil out.

While there were recently six major studios (plus mini majors), after Warner Bros. is sold (following other recent anti-competitive mergers like Disney buying Fox) there will only be four left.

With the collapsed distribution windows, it’s no longer feasible for those four studios to produce enough theatrical features to keep movie theaters in business. In 2025 over 100 films received a major theatrical release with inflation-adjusted box office revenues of over $15 billion while in 2024 they crashed to only 62 films with box office revenues of about $8.6 billions. Over 5,000 movie theaters have already closed their doors in the last couple of years.

snip//

Art is now called “content” and is treated as an asset class to be bought and sold by mega-corporations like they’re real estate towers or meme coins. Roughly 2-hour dramas in 3 acts have been inspiring communal audiences for about 2500 years since the Greeks but they’re about to largely disappear from theaters, to the detriment of the entire culture. This is ushering in an age with little originality or surprise and general cultural stagnation. The sale of Warners will only accelerate this trend.

As James Cameron, director of “Titanic” and “Avatar” recently said, it will be a “disaster.”

more...

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/miles-mogulescu/115772/why-there-will-be-almost-no-movie-theaters-in-5-years

[dalton99a]

1. Kick

[FalloutShelter]

2. So sad.

There is nothing equivalent to seeing a movie on the big screen. This is the death of not movies… content creators will continue to call them that… this is the death of Cinema.

The arts are dying.As an author and an artist this is really depressing to me.

As if I need to be more depressed.

[GreatGazoo]

3. Fortunately Miles is Completely Wrong

Other things that "Ended" the theater business:

1914 - the outbreak of WW1

1922 - the beginning of free radio broadcasts

1925 - the Fatty Arbuckle scandal

1927 - the end of silent movies and many stars of that era

1929 - the Wall St take-over of Hollywood

1934 - the Depression

1942 - WW2 and the commandeering of studios

1948 - the beginning of free TV broadcasts

1955 - destruction of studio backlots

1963 - the end of MGM, "end of musicals as a genre"

1968 - beginning of MPAA ratings and porn

1969 - the failure of 'Hello Dolly' and "Star!'

1970 - death of the Western as a genre

1976 - VHS piracy

1978 - HBO and satellite TV

1979 - the failure of "Ishtar"

1984 - DVD piracy

1996 - internet piracy

2020 - Covid lockdowns

2023 - casting Rachel Zegler as Snow White

Box office for 2025 is +2% YoY from 2024:
https://deadline.com/2025/12/box-office-christmas-avatar-anaconda-marty-supreme-song-sung-blue-1236655872/

[babylonsister]

4. The huge theater in my hood closed down this past summer fwiw.

We went to see Nuremberg a month or so ago. They were charging $6 for tap water, the theater was freezing and the volume was ear-drum shattering. We won't be going back. I will in future wait until I can watch from the comfort of my home.

I guess we'll see.

[GreatGazoo]

7. That sounds like a terrible experience

Movie attendance in the US peaked around 1918 when people saw on average 3 films per week (!) Now under 10% of population will go to one movie in any given week. So the decline has been long and the business is not really expanding but film going is a ritual. The number of theaters will adjust to demand but we are entering a preservation phase that embraces the experience of movie going as unique and social. Directors and other enthusiasts have made big investments to keep some of the most legendary theaters going.

I hope you can find a decent theater to see films you are interested in.

[aggiesal]

23. I recently went to see Nuremberg, ...

The last time I went to the movies was in 2023 to see Killers of the Flower Moon (Excellent movie).

I've been going to more live theater than movie theaters.

Back to Nuremberg, online the tickets cost $8.99 + service fee, so I didn't order online.
When I went to the theater, there were only about a dozen cars in the lot.
When I entered the theater, there were no ticket sellers, only ticket kiosks and it took me to the same website when ordering online. The price is $8.99 but no service fee. I expected to pay $15 - $20. And all seats were reserved seating and all were still available.

The concessions were outrageous priced, but that was expected.
When I walked into the theater I was the only one. The screen was blanked.

The movie was scheduled for 9:15 pm. At 9 pm commercials started to play
The same commercials you see on TV. Then at 9:15 pm the trailers started.
Right around that time 2 more people arrived, for a total of 3 people.
Remember the scheduled movie time was 9:15 pm.
Well for the next 30 minutes trailer after trailer ... played
After 9:30 pm, each new trailer annoyed me.

Movie started at 9:45 pm, which really p1$$ed me off.
Yes the volume was way too loud, but the movie was great.

Didn't get out of the theater until after midnight. I probably was the last person out, because I couldn't find 1.employee.

Is the theater experience dying?
I believe it is.

[GreatGazoo]

48. Was this at a chain like AMC or Cinemark?

Just curious.

The theaters near me are regional. Three are run by one non-profit group and the closest one is owned by a millionaire and run by the same family that has a drive-in 10 miles north of here. I pay $11 for most screenings or $5 or discount day which is Tuesday at the close one or Wednesday at the three others. Beer is $6, popcorn is $4

We just restored the one in Saugerties to a version of a 1920s facade and marquis. Very vibrant film scene here. Lots of screenings with Q&A. Festivals, revivals, art house.
https://www.upstatefilms.org/film-series-2


There is an AMC complex 30 miles away and it is more like what you describe -- kiosks, too many ads, too many trailers but if you add 15 minutes to the "start" time you can miss most of that.

[Bev54]

43. The old theatre in my home town, smaller one, is now run by a non-profit and shows

older films and classics, the popcorn is reasonably priced and all profits go to charity. They could not compete with the new large theatre. It is now full for the films as people get to enjoy a movie on the large screen and know they are giving to charity. I thought it was a brilliant idea.

[lonely bird]

14. I doubt he is wrong

Collapse of competition always causes price increases and many times quality decreases

Of more impact will be increased digital tech. Think Ready Player One and its Oasis.

The techs that developed in the list you presented were part of the so-called forward movement of tech. In and of themselves they could not accomplish what is on the horizon. VR, holography, AI will all impact the circuses part of bread and circuses. For that is what entertainment is. Its existence is to keep the masses focused away from wealth transfer.

[GreatGazoo]

49. my point was that "movies are dying" has been said many times in the past with even better reasons

than he offers yet it is still here. It IS competing with tech developments. It is always pushed forward in order to compete. Sync sound was developed 20 years before The Jazz Singer but there was no reason to adopt it until radio started to take away film audiences. Wide screen was done in 1897. 70mm was done in 1928 but neither of those was adopted until the 1950s or so.

He sets a time limit of 5 years but theater revenue has increased recently. And more theaters are being adopted by non-profits which don't need the kind of revenue that chains do. I'm confident that movie theaters will be operating in 2030. This is our brand new "old" facade:

https://www.dailyfreeman.com/2025/11/21/doors-tribute-band-to-perform-at-orpheum-theatre-in-saugerties-on-dec-7/

[hlthe2b]

18. Not sure he's wrong this time...

I only go occasionally, but when I have, crowds have noticeable dwindled (and not just during the day). That is not just Denver, but suburbs and northern Colorado.

[gay texan]

26. I'll add one

The remaking of "The Magnificent Seven"

[ProfessorGAC]

41. Yeah, That Didn't Work For Me Either

Besides, it was a remake of a remake!
Though I prefer Mag 7 over 7 Samurai.

[Javaman]

5. theaters won't be gone but they certainly won't be anything like they are now

I think they will fall into the "boutique" category.

[newdeal2]

8. That's already happening or happened

Most theaters around here have turned into the "luxury" or experiential type. I'm pretty sure those will survive, but no we won't be seeing new giant 30 screen theaters with cheap tickets again.

Also, the author forgets Hollywood isn't the only game in town. I see a lot of chains offering foreign films, especially from India, which is a different revenue stream.

[ChazInAz]

34. Here in Tucson

We have a co-op cinema: The Loft, right on Speedway, our main drag. It's a great place that shows foreign films, art films, festivals, etc.. Tickets are just a little pricey for non-members, but I can count on them not wasting our time on superhero dreck.

[Auggie]

6. Change happens ...

I remember milk delivery, gas station attendants, green stamps, typewriters, rotary phones, rabbit ears, a morning newspaper ...

[Pluvious]

37. Drive-in movies, AM hits, and vinyl records !

[KS Toronado]

9. Hope drive-ins are the last to go.

[Bev54]

44. There are very few drive-in theatres left in Canada. Hard to get people in winter and only run

in the summer. I loved going to the drive-in and took my grandchildren to the one in my old home town so they could experience it at least once.

[KS Toronado]

47. Every Saturday growing up was the drive-in

Ours was only open spring, summer, & fall.

[IbogaProject]

45. Drive-Ins are making a small comeback

And some theatres are starting to offer a subscription, fixed monthly fee for ~3 movies per week. And a new emergent theatre type are E-Sports venues. Piracy hasn't been the cause of theatre and music sales declines rather the growth of video game expendatures is where those "lost revenues" have gone. Total media sales are still increasing.

[DinahMoeHum]

10. Alamo Drafthouse will probably survive. . .

. . .but that's because they are also restaurants/bars featuring movies.

Other movie theaters that will survive will be the small "arty" picture houses that will also serve as panel discussion forums for the films or as fundraisers for the topics involved.

PM me for further info on several good ones in my area.

[Hugin]

11. Are the years 2025 and 2024 flipped in the fourth paragraph?

It’s the only way that statement shows a decline.

[Ol Janx Spirit]

19. Trying to figure that out myself....

I checked the article and it does actually say, "in 2025 over 100 films received a major theatrical release with inflation-adjusted box office revenues of over $15 billion while in 2024 they crashed to only 62 films with box office revenues of about $8.6 billions."

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/

It looks like it peaked in 2018 at just under $12 billion (not inflation adjusted,) but other than that the numbers would not suggest that anything has really "crashed."

I don't know how to pull major theatrical releases, but overall releases are only slightly down.

It only takes one or two big franchises to drive revenue over a several year period, and as long as theatres continue to offer what you can't get at home--a very large screen, immersive sound, etc.--I really do not see them going away.

Theatres in my area are still upgrading and new ones are being built. That does not suggest that they will be gone in five years.

And the obvious flaw in that citation of data suggests to me that the author, Miles Mogulescu, does not pay enough attention to what he says to be taken seriously.

Maybe that's why his profile page says simply, "Page not found."



http://www.smirkingchimp.com/profile/miles-mogulescu

[Hugin]

25. I have to admit...

I smell AI.

*insert screenshot from “Blade Runner”*

There’s no doubt that the entire structure of entertainment has and is shifting. I have to wonder if one measure, “Box Office”, is adequate to make broad assertions about the health of the industry any longer.

Thanks for linking to some actual stats.

[hunter]

33. This is a creative commons article copied from another site.

maybe here:

https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/will-movie-theaters-survive

His writing is all over the place.

[Crowman2009]

12. The indies will survive, AMC on the other can go down into the toilet as far as I'm concerned.

We have an independent theater here in town named Capri which not only shows movies, but has concerts, lectures and virtual art exhibits as well. It helps theaters to have different types of entertainment in these venues. The same way they did up to the 1920's before movies were the only attraction.

[milestogo]

13. The ticket prices are ridiculous.

I'd rather watch a good movie in the theater than at home. But the theatres are putting themselves out of business. The price of tickets and of refreshments is just too much.

[PJMcK]

15. Doom and gloom predictions are often misguided

We will see how technology continues to change entertainment and how audiences consume it.

In fact, there are more options for entertainment than ever before. Business models change but the desire for diversions never ceases.

Back when Napster assaulted the music business, it was predicted that it was the end of music yet today there are far more choices for listeners. Certainly the digital evolution has caused tremendous changes but the art form and its business is still thriving. It’s just different than it was.

Coping with change is hard but accurately predicting the future is harder. One amazing thing about humans is our ability to adapt to change. It’s part of how evolution works.

All my opinion, of course. For reference, I’ve enjoyed a nearly 50 year career in music and it’s been good to me and I’ve been good to it, I’d like to think.

[hunter]

16. We've been buried in so much shitty "content" we hardly recognize the good stuff any more.

Increasingly sophisticated Computer Generated Imagery and AI isn't making things any better.

It's obvious that many movies start as a "concept" for some "product" and start rolling before they have any story to tell. Sometimes these movies can be saved in production, more often they cannot.

I don't think cinema will go away entirely, it will however begin to resemble live theater in it's distribution, everything from high school productions to big city movie houses; stories that are heavier than the usual "casual viewing" and "how to" content of YouTube and similar sites.

Here in the twenty first century anyone with a decent camera and computer can make a movie. The ability to tell a compelling story is rare.

[gulliver]

17. Went to a movie in a theater. Other audience members ruined it.

The last time I went to a movie was last year. About thirty minutes in, a group of about five teen girls seated themselves about 20 feet away. There were only a few other people in the audience. The teen girls immediately pulled out their phones. They were also talking and laughing. They weren't watching the movie at all.

I turned toward them and made eye contact, letting them know they were spoiling the movie. They paid no attention. Theater staff made no attempt to enforce the rules that had been plainly shown before the movie. "No phones. No talking." I walked out. Down about $40.

SMH. I blame the theater management. But they're probably under such financial pressure that they don't feel they can kick out poorly raised teens and yahoos. The teens probably buy a ticket to another movie and then switch around to whatever movie has low attendance to live it up.

[Wonder Why]

20. They probably said that about the iceman when the electric refrigerator came out - and they were right.

Overpriced movies.

Even more overpriced junk food

Terrible movies that are just hyped to death that you can wait to see until they are on Tubi for free.

Lots of promos and ads while you wait to see the main feature

[Zackzzzz]

30. Do you remember the shorts?

The one I remember was a visual of being the driver in a car.
It started down a country road and what appeared over the road
was the opening crawl, the name of the writer, the producer, the driver, the.........
and as you went down the road the names never ended.
This was before Star Wars.

[Wonder Why]

50. I remember a lot further than that

When you got 2 full movies - the main feature plus a "B" picture

When you got Movietone News + main picture

When you got a bunch of cartoons + main picture

[wolfie001]

21. The redheaded weirdo incel in Colorado dampened my desire to go to a theater

And that happened quite a few years ago.

[Omaha Steve]

22. I hope this is wrong

I enjoy going to the theater.

OS

[Zackzzzz]

24. The last time I went to a movie,

Some man with a very long spine sat in front of me, I'm 5'1".
And someone behind me coughed and sneezed through the whole movie.

I saw the periphery of the movie and came down with something quite nasty.
But on the good side, because I was sick for two weeks, I lost 6 pounds.

[moonshinegnomie]

27. I've been to movies twice since covid

No real desire to go again. I’ll wait till I can stream it. The cost of going to a theater between tickets and snacks just isn’t worth it

[bucolic_frolic]

28. They've warped our minds long enough

The public can no longer determine the difference between fantasy and reality. Hence the situation we are in today.

[Sneederbunk]

31. But where will I get my $12 popcorn?

[ret5hd]

32. you can't turn theaters into housing for the homeless...

all the cots would roll down towards the screen and be all jammed together.

[Initech]

38. One of the theaters near me turned into a MAGA church.

I went to one of the restaurants nearby it and saw a guy wearing a shirt from the church and a "Make America Great Again" hat, that told me everything that I needed to know.

[Aristus]

35. Fine with me. The last time I saw a movie in the theaters, it was a disaster.

The film was "1917'; a very good film, which I enjoyed very much. I would have enjoyed it more if it weren't for the couple (of paralyzingly brainless, subhuman wastes of protoplasm) sitting next to me in a sold-out theater.

They talked out loud the entire time; they had nothing to say, and chose to say it as loud and for as prolonged a period as they could. Their fortress-thick skulls were impervious to dirty looks, shh-ing, and more than a few whispered "Could you please be quiet?"'s. I would have walked out except for the riveting narrative of "1917". I couldn't believe these two festering turds with vocal cords had bothered to slither out of their tar-paper shack in order to come watch a new-fangled moving-picture show. When they could have just stayed home and talked to the moldy, rotting walls.

As you can probably tell, this was not the kind of experience I will choose to pay for again. If the obnoxious, rude, empty-headed blitherers won't stay home for their entertainment, I sure as hell will. The more I see of squalid, substandard humanity, the more I understand hermits and mountain men. Who wants to pay to spend time around these jerkwads?

Farewell, movie theaters; no way but this...

[Initech]

36. I watched Wake Up Dead Man last night.

The movie is amazing, it should be nominated for Best Picture. Daniel Craig gave a Best Actor worthy performance, and Josh Brolin did as Best Supporting Actor, and Rian Johnson should get Best Director. But I can't help but wonder what it would be like if it was released to theaters and had actual audiences lining up instead of being on Netflix.

It will be absolutely wild when the DBO numbers are no longer a measure for the success of a movie.

[J_William_Ryan]

39. "This is ushering in an age with little originality or surprise and general cultural stagnation."

Nonsense.

Creative originality will simply move from the big screen to the small – it’s already been happening for years. Some of the best offerings where created for streaming services.

[Hey Joe]

40. Rapacious corporate greed

Has just about ruined everything in this country.
Private equity, venture capitalism, mergers and acquisitions, monopolies and oligopolies.
Vulture capitalism is ruining the character of this nation and limiting the freedom of choice for all people.

[AllyCat]

42. I have to wear earplugs in theaters.

I thought I was the only one until my family started asking if I had extras.

Popcorn and 2 sodas as a “special” are nearing $30.

Idiot theatergoers on their phones.

Have to bring a blanket even in summer because it’s so cold in there.

We go maybe once a year.

[flvegan]

46. It's also the cost to go to a feature film today. Not all theaters

I know, but many from the last thread on this topic, the typical prices were just...stupid.

[MichMan]

51. Seems a bit overblown if you ask me

Within a few years, the theatrical feature film will be all but dead with devastating cultural, social, political, and economic impact

Hollywood seems to have lost its creative originality, after seeing remake after remake of either previous movies or iconic television shows. We haven't been into a movie theater in decades.

.