Just a suggestion to my D.U. Neighbors. Start stocking up on essentials.

[Duncanpup]

Dyslexic bad punctuation ramble ahead.
Good morning D.U. Community having multiple coffees at the moment and my right paw Dunc the chunk golden retriever is having a bad Monday morning. In that he has a circular rawhide not elongated rawhide and it takes him a lot more time to work on the circular rawhide’s I’ve noticed.
Father what the biscuits you know i prefer long chew bones.
Anyway I hope that I’m wrong on this and my intention is not to make you fearful. I have been out of trucking for a bit recovering from a surgery. So this is what i was told yesterday in talking with two drivers.

Referencing Truckload and L.T.L freight in talking with friends and my one friend old union freight hauler as i.
After our company Y.R.C a union outfit went out in 2023 he decided to work non union for regional truckload small fleet and he is happy with this small fleet job.
Truck load is one trailer filled usually with freight for specific customer
L.T.L. Is usually trailers loaded with multiple customers freight. Usually terminal to terminal cross docked and then delivered.
Yet my friend on truckload he’s noticed on wagons that he drags.
And I want to add this truckload outfit is dedicated from supplier to manufacturer all loads headed to Pennsylvania deliver to this plant. Then empty or drop out hook a full load from manufacturer they deliver to and head West to deliver that freight. And then go get the backhaul to drag back to manufacturing plant here in P.A.
My friend mentioned
1- weight has decreased from usual say 40K
2- He averages around 2800 miles a week 1800 miles last week. And this week his dispatch told him Friday hey freight is kind of lite for Monday start you want to leave out Tuesday.

My other friend stayed in the L.T.L. side and he pulls mostly doubles and his company him and other drivers at his terminal getting start times adjusted.

And as of last week he started getting bumped off his usual 21:00 start as to his outfit is backing up his departure time out of the gate. I think he told me anywhere from 23:00 to latest on last Thursday a 01:00 gate time.
Now with both of these guys in what we discussed by phone is this just anomaly not sure.

Although my friends and i have seen this before.
1- Dubya depression
2- When Covid started.
And we all understand how we got here April 2025 trumps tariffs on China fucking asshat totally self inflicted.
And now we see the Orange Parasite desperately sending a message to Xi in that tariffs tax on China will be lowered.
So when tariffs were placed around 4/9-4/10 maybe 18-19 days ago. There was still container ships from China loaded making for our ports. And I’m not sure on travel times for ships perhaps what 40-60 days travel time depending on East coast or West coast or our southern ports.

Yet now China shipping has been turned off. So this is total S.W.A.G. Scientific Wild Ass Guess.

I’m thinking that is usually maybe 10-15 days from ship to truck or by rail through the supply lines to customer.
As in from say when trade war started 4/10 earliest maybe late May or early June in us noticing lack of essentials. Even if Xi and Mr. Art of the fail reach an agreement soon and China sends us loaded vessels. We’re probably looking at late June until we get back to what we consider normal in being able to acquire in what we need for our daily lives.

Once again I’m not trying to frighten anyone or that the sky is falling that is not my intention. I’m just saying stay sharp maybe stock up on toothpaste toiletries bath wash toilet paper and i hope I’m wrong on this.

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Already starting.

Got toilet paper and paper towels.

Cleaning supplies for sanitation and laundry.

Personal hygiene products.

Restocked my pantry to some extent (no more room to store) and included spices and salt/pepper. Flour and sugar.

[elocs]

43. I have a case of tp left over from Covid, I don't use flour or sugar.

The other things I will work on the best I can.

[Silver Gaia]

2. I've been stocking up since December, but

thanks for the heads up! I appreciate your insider's take on this.

[2naSalit]

3. K&R

[Easterncedar]

4. Good advice, thanks

I appreciate your perspective. So little of the mass of consumer goods we depend on is manufactured in the US, this shut down in global trade is going to bite in ways big and small - bandaids to appliances to solar panels. Xi doesn’t need to concede anything. I am thinking that right now he may be our biggest help in undermining the Mango Mussolini, as our economy is going to tank hard and Americans don’t like not having stuff. And many of us are not going to have money/jobs to pay for that stuff if there even was any.

Yes, we better brace ourselves.

[TommyT139]

5. Can't help but notice

...you mentioned recovering from a surgery. I'm sure Dunc loves having you nearby! Whatever it was, have a smooth and speedy recovery.

[Duncanpup]

6. Thank you my friend

[PikaBlue]

7. Don't forget the pets!

I stocked up on cat food and cat litter first. Then I stocked up on food, cleaning supplies, toiletries, and clothing (winter coats, boots, and shoes). I once asked my grandmother what she would have put aside if she had foreseen the Great Depression and the rationing of WWII, and she said "coats and shoes".

[peacebuzzard]

13. going to reinforce my stock in this department too.

especially for the pets.

[gademocrat7]

8. Thank you, Duncanpup

for the heads up. Hope you recover quickly from your surgery. Take care.

[moniss]

9. Freight for the independents

had sort of picked up just a little in the first two months of the year but now in the last 6 weeks it has fallen a great deal. The load boards are way down for number of loads and the rates have fallen back to less than 20 years ago. As you know freight activity is always an early indicator of what is going to be. I feel bad because when this hits it's going to hit hard. I'm older than stardust and so I'll be shuffling along and living in the truck if I have to but a lot of young people are going to lose what they were building for.

When marriages get stressed by downturns the frustration and the fighting can start and then some don't make it. It's just a fact of the numbers and what divorce lawyers/courts see and know is coming. Parents fighting in front of the kids is a horrible thing and there is no place in the house to go where you don't hear it when Mom and Dad are screaming at each other.

[The Wizard]

10. Supply side has a different meaning now. (NT)

[peacebuzzard]

11. SWAG noted; will start my stockpile

thanks for your journal entry today. I appreciate the advise and will take my precautions.

[democrank]

12. Thanks for your much-appreciated info.

Let’s hope we all somehow get through this Trump calamity.

Didn’t know about your surgery, but I’m sending strength and a hug. Take good care.

[Duncanpup]

14. Thank you Democrank.

[CaptainTruth]

15. I saw this on Bluesky not long ago, "container volumes have collapsed".

[bdamomma]

32. I just posted this port of LA

https://www.portoflosangeles.org/news/livestream

[dalton99a]

37. +1

[TommyT139]

39. That means lower tolls, too, right?

Geez, the ripples from the Turd Reich's bellyflop are gonna swamp us all.

[Easterncedar]

16. Just changed a lightbulb

Odd size. Made in China. Gotta score a few of those!

[BoRaGard]

28. "Let there be Darkness." - G.O.P.

[Easterncedar]

29. "Democracy dies in darkness."

As someone pointed out last fall, it turned out to be a promise.

[dalton99a]

38. +1. Most Walmart lighting products - especially bulbs and LEDs - are made in China

[CaptainTruth]

17. Just saw this yesterday. Empty shelves on the way, I think.

[Fla Dem]

23. So are all those containers, arrivals waiting to be picked up or waiting to be shipped?

[GoCubsGo]

18. I try to do that anyway.

If it's on sale, and the price is right, I buy it whether I need it immediately, or not. Shit happens, and it's always best to be prepared. Not to mention that it saves money in the long run.

[Mike 03]

19. Thanks for this post!

I find these types of reports incredibly helpful.

SiriusXM has a channel, Road Dog Trucking, for drivers to talk about what's going on inside the industry and now I'm wishing I had been listening more to that. What an idiot I am not to have thought of that. I'll be programming it into my player today because I'll bet that is another great place to get reports like this.

[Vinca]

20. Everything old is new again. Hoard, hoard, hoard. Thanks, Donald.

[Fla Dem]

21. Thaks Dunc...Totally agree. Already started.

[Joinfortmill]

22. Thank you for this.

[mwooldri]

24. I'm trying to make sense of things.

I drive daycab, as a contracted driver for a big multinational ... They make Tide, Gain, Pampers among other things.

While I personally have not had a day without work - and they're long days - other drivers working different lanes have had days when they have been "benched" - i.e. they're not driving that day. I've also had my choice of truck when I come to the yard in the morning.... Usually I get a choice of one or two, or if we've had a number of breakdowns we get to wait for another driver to return. (We're a slip seat operation, AM driver hands over their truck to the PM driver). I know management had been trying to address the truck shortage by taking trucks that were near the end of their working life and instead of turning them into Penske (they're on a long lease) they've kept them and reassigned them to us.

I've sort of kept my ear to the ground with my former employers... They've been trying to cut costs... Instead of washing trucks every other week it's now once a month, unless the vehicle is absolutely filthy. New recruits are coming in a little less per mile. On the bright side loads to Canada are still healthy, Canadians still want glass for their windows.

So I don't know what to make of it. Wifey on the other hand became a full time community college teacher in January... Teaching medical lab science... But is still available to work for the hospital as a lab tech, and still has to put her 8 hours a month in to stay current and hired with them. She says she won't quit that because of Trump.... Worried that community colleges will see their funding cut, cos of DEI or some other shitty excuse, and she might be let go... never mind the fact that community colleges teach vocational skills very much needed.

Well, whatever will be will be.

[DFW]

25. Luckily, all normal here in EU-land.

I just got back from the Airport, where my wife picked me up.

I brought back some Constant Comment tea, since I can‘t get it here, and German customs couldn‘t care less about a couple dozen teabags. The best apricot marmalade comes from Austria, anyway, and the stores here haven‘t run out. To sweeten tea, you can always use sugar or honey, but apricot marmalade is ten stages better (not all Russian ideas are bad). Just make sure you never buy Smuckers brand, as they load theirs with HFCS.

So, whatever evil may be lurking back there in the heart of Trumpmuskistan, it hasn’t visibly affected the daily life of EU-Land yet.

[Prairie_Seagull]

26. Story recently about loss of work at ports as well.

Saw a pic on DU recently of Port of Seattle having only one container ship. As I worked there until retirement. I never saw it like this. Sure it could just be a blip but I doubt it. I wonder if Cruise ship dock will be similar this year.
I to don't know if the sky is falling but I would be willing to put money on a significant slowing with significant job loss. Just my NSWAG.

My daughters dog just had both lower molars removed due to his exuberance with a bone chew toy. My dog "NEO" is her dogs brother. Bone treats are off the menu. FYI.

Generally better to have and not need than to need and not have. Got this from a smart crazy Uncle. Sure he heard it elsewhere. I was 10 I think when spouted it. Has saved my ass in the past.

Sounds like young freight haulers should be saving however they can.

[SheltieLover]

27. Ty, Dunc, for sharing your insights.

Last edited Mon Apr 28, 2025, 09:12 AM - Edit history (1)

U've already got a LOT of tp, toothpaste, & shower gel.

I worry about car patts.

My gs ordered some Bilstein struts from Germany. Originally, the arrival date was late April. Now the ship date is the end of May, & I suspect this is due to the customs changes that resulted in German companies indefinately suspending all shipments over $800.

Fucking repukes always screw up the economy!

It will take Wonder Woman or Superman Dem president to straighten out the mess ruskie agent kraznov has made for pootin.



On Edit: just saw article on NBC stating DHL is resuming shipments over $800!

[mwmisses4289]

30. No bare shelves yet,

but noticed that things are getting a little thin. Store I went to a few days had things a bit more spread out on their shelves rather than the usual crowding. Haven't noticed it in the grocery stores yet. We were already prepping any way, live where weather can get nasty and outages of a week or more happen a couple of times a year.
Take care of yourself Mr. Duncanpup.

[jmbar2]

31. Thanks for the important info! Shipping reports confirm what you are saying

Shippers "frontloaded" cargo when tariffs were first announced, but after that, a huge number of cargo ships are just floating in Chinese waters, not going to US ports.

US port traffic falling off a cliff. Good report from Wall St Journal (1:21mins)

Link to tweet

[Diamond_Dog]

33. Thank you so much Duncanpup

I am grateful for your insider observations and advice.

My youngest needs to have the a/c in his Volkswagen fixed. The dealer told him call back in the fall. !!!

Miss Sophie asked me if pizza comes from China and I said no, Sophie you’re worrying needlessly. Although she hopes Dunc will not have his supply chain interrupted any more with the circular chews. Knucklehead Solidarity.

Take care everyone.

[Clouds Passing]

34. Thank you Duncanpup for your warning 🩵

[peggysue2]

35. Sadly, I don't think you're wrong.

All the indicators say we are entering a very rough season.

Call it the Spring and Summer of our discontent. Shortages and empty shelves are in our near-future and may be the least of our worries. Preparing for what's coming is prudent, not crazy-pants..

[dalton99a]

36. Shortages are coming even if Trump cancels all tariffs today

[EuterpeThelo]

40. Thanks for the timely warning, Duncanpup.

My daughter and I began stocking up in November right after the election.

We reinstated what began in 2020 as "the pandemic grocery" out in our garage and it's now rebranded "the tariff grocery." Not really hoarding ridiculous amounts of things, just been buying basics like coffee, toothpaste, ketchup, garbage bags, canned food and cat food etc. whenever we find a good deal on them. Shopping on websites like martie.com and visiting Costco and Grocery Outlet for multiples of things that have a long shelf life (with the added bonus that Costco is HELLA blue and GO as a company is mostly-blue, with our local franchisees having no record of political donations and a long history of contributing to local food banks).

We also have replaced our refrigerator and dishwasher and my 2018 desktop computer (which were all still functional, but getting older) and bought extras of small appliances like the juicer and crockpot at a local small business that buys pallets of stuff from Target/Walmart/Amazon and sells it for pennies on the dollar (and which is run by THE NICEST guy who is also a hardcore progressive).

Have had a few small projects done around the house that I've been putting off before labor/materials costs skyrocket. We're also trying, with mixed success, to start growing some vegetables and herbs.

Realize not everyone can implement all these strategies and I'm very thankful for what we have been able to do, but continuing to be frugal and doing anything we can to make ourselves less dependent at this point is the goal. I agree with Dunc's take that it's probably about to get pretty bad, so just do whatever you can afford to do.

[nitpicked]

44. Just make sure supplies don't get old on you

I had to throw out a stick of cheese because when I opened it up, parts had turned green even though it wasn't due to expire until August.

(It had been refrigerated the whole time.)

[Johnny2X2X]

41. Amateur hour

They just don't know twhat they're doing to the economy. This isn't like a water faucet, you can't just trun things off and then right back on again.

And the economy is dirven by consumer spending, people are freaking out right now and after the initial "stock up" on stuff, people are going to just sit on their money.

A recession is probably already here, how deep it is remains to be seen, but I think it's going to be worse than 2008.

[elocs]

42. Stocking up is a great short-term idea for a natural disaster or emergency, but not long term.

Who is able to stock up for a year or more? Very few, and certainly not the poor and those who are just getting by. Other than short term, the best you can realistically hope for is to stock up enough to keep yourself ahead of the game. But for those of us now who are just getting by, we can't stock up. So what do we do?

[Duncanpup]

45. I understand

And my heart goes out to you i have no answers friend