Timothy Snyder: We have four options (re Biden): Each has risks

[jmbar2]

https://snyder.substack.com/p/biden-experiments

1. Operation Consistency. Current course
Pros
-Preserves the advantages of incumbency. The president will get credit for continuing domestic and foreign policy successes.
-The good economy
- The risk of tyranny
Cons
- Being a good president is not the same thing as running a good campaign
- [Staying the course] is most likely to be criticized in coming months. What appears safe in the moment might be the least safe over time.
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2. Operation Carnival
- President resigns and announces rapid process to select the Democratic slate for president before the Democratic convention in August. This could be a series of debates among leading Democrats, along with rapid mini-primaries or something similar.
Pros
-- would make of Trump the old, predictable candidate.
- would make life difficult for Trump, who will not know who the nominee will be until after the Republicans’ own boring, scripted convention.
- Shift media frenzy from Biden's age
- Attention on rising stars of the party
Cons
- not much time
- some may view as a mechanism to leap over Kamala Harris. This objection could be met, should the vice-president willingly join the contest

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. Operation Convention
Biden could free his delegates to do as they please, and the convention could be organized into debates or discussions.

Pros
- Republicans would not know whom to oppose at their July convention
- Democrats would see a number of talented politicians in action
- the convention would be interesting, in anticipation and in reality.
- an unpredicted but effective slate could be identified.

Cons:
- Nondelegates might feel they were left out.
- Endless rounds of voting. Ranked voting at the convention could prevent the chaos.
-
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. Operation Kamala
Pros
-two possible variations of Operation Kamala.
Weak version
- president releases his delegates but makes it clear that he supports Vice-President Harris. She becomes the presumptive nominee and carries the show at the convention.
-- select a vice-presidential candidate with input from the outside.
Strong version
- the president resigns from office, and Harris becomes the president. This would be the most decisive possible move, ending the entire process. It would make Harris the incumbent.
-would free Biden to act as her surrogate on the campaign trail, a role in which he would be extremely effective, and in which he would be seen as generous and patriotic.
Cons
-Harris does not have an overwhelming national profile, at least thus far.

[My view: Would increase Republican turnout of racists and misogynists]

The question is: what is the least risky here?

I think a President Biden who considered these options (or someone else’s better list) with his team, as part of a process, would make the right call.

[PSPS]

1. Who is the "we" this unknown random blogger is talking to?

Maybe the news of this being settled hasn't reached his mother's basement.

[MorbidButterflyTat]

3. Possibly

...the subscribers to his substack?

So sick of this.

[PSPS]

40. I guess that says it all

Apparently, he's some kind of "professor" somewhere who makes money off of his "subscribers" and maybe occasionally appears on the TEE-VEE somewhere. In other words, he's just another guy with an opinion who has to churn out his blog posts frequently enough to keep that money coming in. Kind of like an opinion writer, who gets paid by the piece/word. I would expect better from a "professor." Here, he's just jumping on the "bash biden" train, like so many others. What would be something actually interesting would be a similar piece along the lines of "We have four options (re Trump): Each has risks." That would be something worthwhile. But, no, our esteemed "professor" is just another lazy guy compelled to feed his massive number of "subscribers" what every other opinion piece is already stuck on. Uninteresting and lazy.

[jmbar2]

5. About Timothy Snyder

Last edited Wed Jul 10, 2024, 02:09 PM - Edit history (1)

Timothy Snyder is the Richard C. Levin Professor of History at Yale University and a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. He speaks five and reads ten European languages.

His chief books are Nationalism, Marxism, and Modern Central Europe: A Biography of Kazimierz Kelles-Krauz (1998); The Reconstruction of Nations: Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Belarus, 1569-1999 (2003); Sketches from a Secret War: A Polish Artist’s Mission to Liberate Soviet Ukraine (2005); The Red Prince: The Secret Lives of a Habsburg Archduke (2008); Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin (2010), Thinking the Twentieth Century (with Tony Judt, 2012); Black Earth: The Holocaust as History and Warning (2015); On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century (2017); and The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America (2018).

Snyder is co-editor of The Wall Around the West: State Borders and Immigration Controls in Europe and North America (2001); Stalin and Europe: Terror, War, Domination (2013); and The Balkans as Europe (2018).

His essays are collected in Ukrainian History, Russian Politics, European Futures (2014), and The Politics of Life and Death (2015).

https://history.yale.edu/people/timothy-snyder

Some circles really do not like that Snyder writes about such things. I think his analysis of four possible options is useful.

Watch his recent interviews on Nicolle Wallace - he's a very thoughtful, brilliant guy.

[Doc Sportello]

51. Thanks

I saw the Wallace interview and thought it was informative. Yes he is brilliant with insight into our system like no other. His options here are also useful.

[jmbar2]

52. Thanks

I think it's helpful and realistic to think through the risks. You can bet that this risk assessment is ongoing in Biden's inner circle. We need to be able to change on a dime if Joe does.

[returnee]

7. Timothy Snyder is no "random blogger."

[electric_blue68]

10. If you're refering to Professor Timothy Snyder...

He's a History Professor
Graduated from Brown University - BA
Balliol College Oxford - DPhil

Wiki snip

He has written several books, including Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin, On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century, The Road to Unfreedom, and Our Malady. Several of them have been described as best-sellers.[4][5]

Snyder serves on the Committee on Conscience of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. He is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations

Teaching at Yale currently
Also at London S hool of Economimcs, and Political Science

I heard of him in relationship to Russia's threatening, then attacking Ukraine of which he is against.

[asm128]

16. A history professor

That specializes in Eastern European and Russian history. He's a little out of his wheel house.

[yardwork]

20. Not really. Snyder specializes in authoritarianism.

Snyder is a better than most commenter on our times.

He's not claiming to have all the answers or even the right answers, but he's well-informed, thoughtful, and smart.

[electric_blue68]

59. Well, first of all with his academic credentials he's quite smart, and studying those dictators at the very...

least has him being driven by the horrors that those men, and their top people rained down upon so many that he's trying parse the ways that would be best to keep the USA from that fate!

I'm supporting Biden, but I really understand why he's saying what he's saying. And he hasn't ruled out staying the course.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

14. This response didn't go the way you thought it would, did it?

Maybe Google first before you say something like that.

[brooklynite]

19. Biden has stated his position, but it clearly isn't "settled" given the number of Democrats who disagree.

[MagickMuffin]

2. None of those options are winnable

Last edited Wed Jul 10, 2024, 02:18 PM - Edit history (1)

It will only piss off the base, me being one of them.

President Biden had made it clear, he’s not going anywhere.


I don’t know who this Timothy Synder is but he doesn’t speak for anyone I know!


ETA: Still early for me this morning: I’m for Option 1

[jmbar2]

6. Then you are Option 1.

[MagickMuffin]

44. Yes, it's still early for me so apologies

Stay the Course: Ridin with Biden!

[yardwork]

21. Well, that's a problem since Option 1 is to stay the course.

What option do you suggest?

[MagickMuffin]

45. See post 44

[ancianita]

42. ...

Where have you been all these years?

https://google.gprivate.com/search.php?search?q=WHO+IS+TIMOTHY+SNYDER%3F

[MagickMuffin]

47. Where have I been Here, There and Everywhere

[ancianita]

49. Well, please sit yourself down and do a bit of reading from the man who knows Russia and Ukraine better than anyone.

[returnee]

4. One problem I see with #4, strong version

I’ve been considering this option for a while, and I see a major problem. So, Kamala becomes president, fine! And we still have incumbency. Then a VP is selected. Then, and this is the kicker, that person has to be approved by a majority of BOTH houses of Congress. Until that happens, and I think you can see what might happen in the House at the very least, Mike Johnson will be next in line from the presidency. Let your imaginations run with that for a bit.

[jmbar2]

8. Good point - terrifying

[jpug]

9. Johnson is crazy ...

But he'd be mad if he blocked POTUS Harris.

[returnee]

12. Why is that?

Asking seriously? I would really like to know.

[Kid Berwyn]

11. Needed Analysis

While I want Joe Biden to lead the country for a second term as President, we have to be ready for the unexpected. Right now, readiness includes preparing for the possibilities Timothy Snyder elucidates above, as well as whatever unknowable and insane un-American crap the MAGA traitors have in store.

[flamingdem]

13. Kamala doesn't poll as well as Biden and she's the only option

How stupid is this guy.

There's only one option. The rest is fantasy and not effective.

The freak out is mostly about the polls and those can change.

[jmbar2]

17. I believe Snyder's point is that all of the choices have risks of failure

It's Biden's choice to weigh those risks.

[flamingdem]

32. I'm sure he has

It's late in the game for that!

[yardwork]

22. Tim Snyder is not stupid. He's laying out the options he sees.

Option 1 is to stay the course.

Personally, I think it's wise to look at options and assess them dispassionately.

[themaguffin]

23. He's not stupid. He's very smart. I highly recommend his book "The Road to Unfreedom"

[yardwork]

53. I wish Trumpsters would read Snyder's books.

[TexasDem69]

31. I thought I saw a story yesterday maybe

That Harris is now polling better than Biden.

[Frasier Balzov]

54. The strong version of Operation Kamala changes her polling.

She would be the first woman president.

Exactly how can that be defeated given the voting blocks of (1) women, and (2) women of color?

Aren't these groups who elect presidents?

[valleyrogue]

15. There are only two options: Biden or Trump

To dump Biden is to support Trump.

The end.

[jmbar2]

18. Agreed, we all go with Biden's decisions

But there is no perfect decision. Each has risks, and the consequences of failure would be devastating.

[themaguffin]

24. He's not saying that. FFS.

[valleyrogue]

26. It doesn't matter what he says. THIS is the reality.

To dump Biden is to support Trump. Nobody else has an Inhofe snowball's chance in hell.

[themaguffin]

27. No, none of us knows as fact, how each scenario plays out. NONE of us. Period.

[ancianita]

46. To dump Biden is to nullify 14,000,000 primary voters -- 87% of the entire primary.Snyder forgets: Biden IS the nominee

[brooklynite]

25. Seems like a good analysis of all possible options.

[marble falls]

28. We have only one option that is popularly supported by the majority ...

[jmbar2]

29. That's my preferred option. But each comes with risks

Snyder is doing a classic risk assessment of various options. It behooves us to be aware of those possible risks so as to best mitigate against them. Biden's team is likely doing the very sort of risk analysis.

Whatever Biden decides, I'm ridin' with Biden.

[marble falls]

37. Everything has it's risks, like changing horses in the middle of an election. The worst risk with re-electing ...

... Joe Biden is we get Kamala Harris. The worst thing that'll happen if we desert and effective, good President is we get Mango jebus and maybe That idiot JD Vance or that superficially minded Haley at best. Democracy vs a fascist dystopia should require so much nail biting.

[valleyrogue]

30. Snyder's academic specialty is not US politics

It isn't even American history. I looked him up. He needs to stay in his lane.

[jmbar2]

38. About Snyder

Timothy Snyder is the Richard C. Levin Professor of History at Yale University and a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. He speaks five and reads ten European languages.

His chief books are Nationalism, Marxism, and Modern Central Europe: A Biography of Kazimierz Kelles-Krauz (1998); The Reconstruction of Nations: Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Belarus, 1569-1999 (2003); Sketches from a Secret War: A Polish Artist’s Mission to Liberate Soviet Ukraine (2005); The Red Prince: The Secret Lives of a Habsburg Archduke (2008); Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin (2010), Thinking the Twentieth Century (with Tony Judt, 2012); Black Earth: The Holocaust as History and Warning (2015); On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century (2017); and The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America (2018).

Snyder is co-editor of The Wall Around the West: State Borders and Immigration Controls in Europe and North America (2001); Stalin and Europe: Terror, War, Domination (2013); and The Balkans as Europe (2018).

His essays are collected in Ukrainian History, Russian Politics, European Futures (2014), and The Politics of Life and Death (2015).

https://history.yale.edu/people/timothy-snyder

Some circles really do not like that Snyder writes about such things.

[flamingdem]

33. I recall that Snyder came out against Biden after the debate

He's just another pundit pushing his ideas.

Here's an idea: NO MORE DEMOCRATS IN DISARRAY. RALLY BEHIND THE CANDIDATE!

[jmbar2]

41. He did not come out against Biden

He discussed the risks of various options and said that he trusts Biden to make the right decision and will support that decision.

[flamingdem]

50. I might have mixed him up with Lawrence Tribe

Glad you caught that.

[tinrobot]

34. Don't forget... the incumbent wins 75% of the time

And the last incumbent to lose... well, that tub of orange lard lost to our current candidate.

[themaguffin]

35. Snyder's academic background includes history, political science and a career focused on very relevant subject matter

His commentary is thoughtful, measured and credible.

[Alice B.]

36. What about the money?

And why do we persist in talking about Biden like he's steering the ship alone?

I've been referring people to jmbar2's post about FDR like it's my job:

"He campaigned as a competent team, not as an individual."

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219101010

[LostOne4Ever]

39. Operations 1 and strong 4 are our best options

Every other option makes us look weak and disloyal and opens us up to convention chaos and grudges in that the Candidate they wanted didn’t win.

Ultimately if Joe feels like he can do it we should trust him.

[jmbar2]

43. Thank you

Joe will weigh all the options and risks. I trust his decision.

[ancianita]

48. There are no options. Not even at the Democratic Convention. Joe Biden IS the Democratic nominee.

In Chicago, Joe will win in the first round of votes.

[mellow]

56. He's the presumptive nominee

The convention can choose another if he withdraws.

[ancianita]

57. Presumptive with 87% of the vote.

If you want to bet on "Can choose," I'll bet you any amount on "will choose."

[bucolic_frolic]

55. Preventing Trump from demonizing would be the greatest benefit

Announcing his retirement now, to take effect in 2025, after Democrats are settled into the White House, would accomplish many of those goals. It would leave the ticket able to float many popular candidates for new VP in 2025.

As to whether the country would acclimate to the fancy footwork, that's another story.

[ecstatic]

58. What I would want is a rigged (but not obviously rigged) 2 or 3 that ends with KH. lol

That would be soooo entertaining. Everyone would forget about trump. We'd dominate every news cycle. It would be like American Idol back in the day. As long as our candidates kept the focus on project 2025 and the felon. It would be perfect but we'd need unity at the end.

I am also OK with staying the course (option 1), but I don't think they're going to let us. And that's boring and nerve-racking as well.

[electric_blue68]

60. Oh, he's Married to Marci Shore! She wrote the Book- The Ukrainian Night:

I accidentally saw it at my library. Being a 2nd Gen, half Ukrainian-American I borrowed it.

Snip
https://reads.google.com

The Ukrainian Night
Yale University Press, Jan 9, 2018 - History - 320 pages
A vivid and intimate account of the Ukrainian Revolution, the rare moment when the political became the existential

What is worth dying for? While the world watched the uprising on the Maidan as an episode in geopolitics, those in Ukraine during the extraordinary winter of 2013–14 lived the revolution as an existential transformation: the blurring of night and day, the loss of a sense of time, the sudden disappearance of fear, the imperative to make choices.

In this lyrical and intimate book, Marci Shore evokes the human face of the Ukrainian Revolution. Grounded in the true stories of activists and soldiers, parents and children, Shore’s book blends a narrative of suspenseful choices with a historian’s reflections on what revolution is and what it means. She gently sets her portraits of individual revolutionaries against the past as they understand it—and the future as they hope to make it.

She went to Ukraine to interview these people.

[jmbar2]

61. Thanks - didn't know that she is also a writer

I have loved reading "On Tyranny", and learned so much about European history. Still amazes me how truly recent the modern European states are, and the transitions that had to occur to create modern Europe.

[electric_blue68]

62. YW 👍